Dirty tricks and feckless pricks

So what can be our hope now, us 'remainers'?

Now that things are 'calming down', by which I mean heading recklessly for a very definite oblivion, just in a marginally straighter line, it's time for British supporters of the EU to begin to think of some coherent plan for derailing this ridiculous freight train.

Now there isn't much hope in the Tory party, if there ever was. Either Theresa May of Michael 'robot-in-a-human-suit' Gove [it's slipping] looks set to become our next prime minister. The chance of a subsequent general election isn't looking to rosy, so we're probably looking at an unelected leader negotiating our future position in Europe. Let's have a look at each of these candidates for a moment and see what kind of raging zombie apocalypse we're going to get.

Theresa May came down on the remain side during the run-up to the referendum, but she didn't exactly campaign and has expressed an interest in restricting the free movement of people [source], suggesting that she's not a die-hard, 100% EU supporter. Now she is a politician, so this may be a ruse. She may be trying her best to lure in the Eurosceptics in order to get hold of the premiership, but she's also pretty hard nosed.

Theresa May attempting to use telekinesis to detonate the head of a small child.

My personal opinion of May is that she will have been speaking frankly and is a bit of a hard-arse. If she says she's going to take us out of the EU, she will do, but in her favour I do expect that she'd have a good chance of brokering a more favourable deal than anyone else. Having said that, I'd rather not leave at all, and based on what I've said so far on this blog I'm not actually that interested in 'a good deal for Britain' when it comes to leaving. I'd rather see the EU manage to hold its own and convince voters in other member states that __exit isn't the way forward. That way, in a decade or two, Britain might go snivelling back, adopt the Euro and Schengen and the world can get on with improving itself.

Gove: Does not compute. Runtime error.

I wouldn't trust Michael Gove as far as I could throw him. By all accounts he's cunning, wily and a genuine Eurosceptic. I fear for the arrogance of this man and the blind faith he seems to have in his country. I wouldn't put it past him to blithely stick up two fingers to the EU and get us out with no negotiation whatsoever. Now this does tie back into my in-a-decade-Euro-Schengen point above, but it'd be so bloody painful to watch. I'll come back to  Imperial Gove Unit BX457 in a moment.

But what of the other parties? Is there any point looking for hope here? The Labour Party is in disarray, the Lib Dems are comparable to a bunch of schoolkids hanging around the bus stop smoking fags (probably e-cigarettes actually) and UKIP can just go fuck themselves. The SNP and the whole Scotland, Ireland, Gibraltar issue is going to have to wait for another day, but frankly I can't see it helping us just yet. So what of this possible general election and second referendum? Well Theresa May has ruled out both [source] so, heaven forbid, we're back with Gove. I think, due to Mrs May's hard line on this issue, he'll have to at least plump for an election, mainly as a way of gaining a public endorsement for his future plans.

So this, really, will be our only hope, if any of this comes to pass, but are there enough people pissed off with the Tories to get anyone more Europhilic into office?

Lets have a look at some possibilities:

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

Ah, bollocks. Bad in pretty much every way, I think. Whoever ends up leading this party is not going to be the person I want dealing with this mess.

LABOUR MAJORITY

I call this image 'Sexy Corbyn wants to date you'.

Probably still going to be Corbyn in charge, which gives me a little hesitation. I like Corbyn, I think he's principled and will stand by his word. However, he's also desperate to reclaim 'the disillusioned Labour voters' who voted for Brexit, so I have no doubt it's out the door we shall be going, albeit probably in a capacity that results in the UK and Europe having much the same relationship as they do now, just under some other name. As for anyone else leading Labour, it's a bit too early to tell what such a leader would be like, seeing as I have no idea who that might be.

LIBERAL DEMOCRAT MAJORITY

No, I just said it for a laugh, but on the extremely unlikely off-chance that it happened, Timmy Farron says we'll be staying in, so on this note he gets my vote. He can charge students as much as he bloody likes and frankly make them work back down the mines if he can fix this balls-up.

Little Timothy Farron auditioning for the school choir. Unfortunately he was unsuccessful as the judges deemed him 'not raunchy enough'

UKIP MAJORITY

Fuck off, I'm moving to Outer Mongolia or going on a shotgun rampage (only joking - it'll be a fully automatic)*.

TORY/UKIP COALITION

See the previous post

TORY/LIB-DEM COALITION

This, to my mind, would be the most favourable scenario still involving a Brexit. It wouldn't be ideal as we'd still be leaving, but I think free movement of people, goods and services would have its highest chances in such an arrangement. I think we'd very much be able to continue life as normal and even, albeit tentatively, still call ourselves Europeans.

LABOUR/LIB-DEM COALITION

I think we'd just about avoid a Brexit this way round, but I think we'd be in for a decade of negotiations that would see serious financial ramifications. However, these might be partially mitigated, at least at home, by a reduction in austerity.

There is another option, though it's pretty much an outside chance, but it is a tantalisingly interesting prospect:

LIB-DEM/S.N.P./Maybe some others COALITION

We can basically call ourselves 'Jean-Pierre' and wear berets for the rest of eternity. This outlandish and hugely unlikely idea still gets the Lib Dems my vote.

Of course, all of this is moot if we don't get a general election. As for a second referendum, it wouldn't be the same question. I can imagine it would be along the lines of a vote to choose between the negotiated exit package or the status quo. Despite Theresa May's ruling out of EURef#2, I actually think it's going to be a pretty tough job to get a Brexit either without offering the public the choice or by somehow getting massive public support some other way.

The other hope, which is now dwindling, is that whichever candidate ends up leading the Conservatives and becoming the unelected, therefore constitutionally unsupported prime minister, will either not have the balls or will find themselves legally unable to go through with it.

All of the above is, of course, wild conjecture of the highest order and I don't expect anyone for a moment to agree with it. Yet it does put something into perspective: the future of Britain in the EU is by no means bought and sold, and there is a colossal amount of skulduggery to come.

Peace out, Europhiles.

*If MI5 or anyone is listening, don't get excited this is just hyperbole. Yes I have got my tin-foil hat on.

The next episode

So how are we supposed to feel now that we're on a path to leaving the EU, if indeed we ever leave?

King of the Sausage People

Well, things are getting interesting. The Conservative scrap-in-the-mud which will be the leadership election is underway, and Boris Johnson has ruled himself out of the running [source]. That leaves Michael Gove, a man who is not exactly well remembered for his services to the Education sector, Jeremy Hunt (ahem) who is not exactly well remembered for his services to the NHS. Then there's Theresa May of the snooper's charter, Stephen Crabb who thinks that homosexuality is a disease [source], Liam Fox, who "was found to have breached the ministerial code over his working relationship with his friend and self-styled adviser Adam Werrity" [source] and Andrea Leadsom who I'd happily hit with a shovel [no source required].

Jeremy Corbyn doing the shopping

So if the Tories are in turmoil, who will put up a fight for the British people? Surely the Labour Party with its working class support and history of social representation? Ah. Erm...well, that's not going great either. The incumbent leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has faced a vote of no confidence of 172:40 yet refuses to stand down based on the overwhelming support of Labour members [source]. So then, we'll be having a leadership contest here too.

UKIP are also in a bit of trouble [source].

The Liberal Democrats are fighting on the basis of either keeping Britain in the EU or taking us back into it [source]. However, they only have eight MPs and everyone seems to remember their 'breaking of a promise' over university tuition fees when they were in coalition with the Tories between 2010 and 1025, so whether or not they can command any kind of political might is far from certain.

The SNP is in talks with Gibraltar [source], the EU [source] and Northern Ireland [source] about how to keep itself in the bloc, and all credit to them they seem to be doing a good job of it. So not only is Britain set to leave the EU, the United Kingdom may well be torn to pieces in the process.

Meanwhile, the EU itself is fighting like mad to seem in control of this whole sorry situation. Nigel Garage has said it is 'finished' [source]. The glee with which he delivers this statement is highly concerning in the least. As if we didn't already think the bug-eyed cock-rocket was up to no good, it now seems that he's exercising some kind of personal vendetta against the Union, born of his undeniably racist tendencies, one must assume. How this uncouth, pisshead blabbermouth is allowed to walk the streets unnerves me. What a twat, seriously.

Britain, you let this tosser win. Bad call. [source]

So what about the financial implications? Though the markets seem to be recovering now that things have cooled off (remember, we haven't actually left yet!) [source], Sterling is still down at $1.35, whereas it was at $1.50 before the vote. Vodafone are considering relocating their HQ [source], BT's shares have dropped 10% [source] and a number of other companies are facing similar, if not worse, conditions with economic growth forecasts being hastily reduced [source]. The President of the United States of America, Barack Obama has warned of the economic impacts [source] and has stood by his warning that Britain will be 'at the back of the queue' when it comes to negotiating new trade deals [source]. But at least the 'special relationship' is untarnished. Maybe we can use it to feed our kids or build all the new hospitals, now that we're not getting £350m per week? Oh, no, we won't be getting any new hospitals because Garage will have packed all the staff up and sent them home.
 One last point, the amount of money wiped off the global economy has now reached $3 trillion [source]. Pocket change, really.

What is interesting is how many of the above sources come from the Daily Telegraph, who were all for leaving.

So this is where we are. Domestic politics is a mess, international politics is a mess, and the economy is fuckarooed. But surely it's time we all just sucked it down, rolled up our sleeves and made this deal work for Britain, right? Wrong.

Firstly, there is no fucking deal. There's nothing to make work for Britain yet. Until there's some kind of cogent plan, what is there to do?

Secondly, I feel like the younger generation, who will have to live with this ball-sack of a situation for the longest, have been fucked out of a future by a bunch of people who, on the whole, won't be massively effected by it [a well articulated explanation]. Why should we just sit back and let this happen? People should fight for their rights and their opportunities.

Thirdly, Nigel 'I'm not a racist but' Garage said before the result, when the little fucker thought he'd lost, that he'd keep fighting until he got the result he wanted. I called him a wanker then and I do so now, but the little arse-scratcher had a point. You can bet your life UKIP would have been shouting about vote rigging, unfair practice and probably blaming it all on the Polish. Admittedly we don't require that kind of arse-crackery, but we should still stick up for ourselves.

Fourthly, we have power in Europe to change it for the good. Now many people will say that individual member states have no power and get dragged along by the whole. Now even though this displays a complete unfamiliarity with Britain's experience, here is an example of how member states can enact change over the most serious and fundamental EU legislation, namely the French and Ductch public voting against:

"The Lisbon Treaty was drafted as a replacement for the Constitutional Treaty which was rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005." [source]

Fifthly, isn't the whole point of politics that we campaign for what we want, to get the change that we believe we need? The leave voters would desperately like to come up with a rebuttal to this, but without such a principle they wouldn't have got their way, Garage would be face down in a beer filled ashtray (again) and we wouldn't be in this sorry bloody mess in the first place.

Right, that'll do for the day. If you're sick of this ranting, I can highly recommend my other blog here for some light relief.

Lest we forget...

If you've been reading my blog, and I can't imagine you have, hopefully you'll have found my tone jocular, possibly a little mocking, but not too severe. Sadly though, in this post I'm going to come across a little more grave.

Since the 24th of June there's been a lot of talk about what Brexit means for Britain and the British people. We've discussed how it will effect jobs, the economy, trade and travel. We've heard political wrangling and social ructions of the highest order, yet the true cost of this admittedly historic event is, I believe, yet to come.

Since the prospect of a referendum on the United Kindom's membership in the EU first arose some years ago, I've been thinking hard about what effect it might have not only at home but on a global scale. It was easy for myself and others do discard such musings as pessimism and/or scaremongering, yet now it comes to it, it seems that such considerations were somewhat near the mark. Allow me to explain.

The rise of far right sentiment in Europe now seems inescapable. A rise in racially motivated attacks has already been documented in Britain and across this peaceful continent, political parties are already calling for their own referenda. One would be naive in the extreme to suggest that such polls would be unlikely to result in a similar increase in racist attacks elsewhere.

Yet though these events are contemptible in themselves, it is their very emergence which is of the greatest concern. The modern United Kingdom is built on our history. That history, above all else, prides itself on the ejection of the far right from Europe. The most nationalistic Brit will be the first to glow with pride during any discussion of the First and Second World War. We get all weepy eyed when we think of our brave lads, out on the continent, fighting through mud, pain and death to liberate our neighbours from the evil clutches of the fascists. Each of us has a deep seated passion for what we did in those years, yet all of a sudden those far right sentiments are erupting here, of all places. If the far right can surge in influence here, who knows how forceful it may be in its resurgence elsewhere?

On Rememberance Sunday every November, millions of small paper poppies are distributed throughout the land. On each box of poppies, and with every publication, poster and pamphlet comes the same three words which each of us knows by heart: "Lest We Forget".

Perhaps we are becoming desensitised to it, or perhaps we misunderstand its meaning, but forgetting is precisely what we appear to be doing. The war that ravaged the entire world, killing over 60 million people and ultimately resulted in the unleashing of the most barbaric force known to humanity, the atomic bomb, was precipitated by the emergence of the far right in Germany.

Now I know what many people are thinking, that this would never happen here. They suspect that, whilst Farage and UKIP might be going a bit too far, the kind of politics that's emerging at the moment is simply about protecting ourselves and our ways of life. Yet I saw an internet meme today which brought it home to me:

Enough said. Credit: Unknown

Now, by no means am I suggesting that leave voters are guilty of supporting the far right. Of course not, I'm not a complete arse. However, it is the endorsement of the far right which, complicit or not, is the result of the British secession from the EU. We are declaring ourselves different, superior somehow, and it is this which enables the kind of vile thinking for which the far right is so recognisable. Again, I'm not suggesting that Brexit voters caused this thinking, but the event itself is giving credence to it unknowingly.

When I was younger, my uncle was a graphic designer working on a holocaust exhibition in a museum. I must have been eleven or twelve, I don't really recall. What I do remember was a pile of shoes which mimicked one such arrangement found at Auschwitz.

If you don't understand the sheer gravity of this image, find out. [source]

Make no mistake, I am not abusing this image or the poor individuals, the fathers, mothers, daughters and sons who died to create it. They died after the most appalling of treatment which should never have been permitted to take place, ever. I use this image because it reminds us what can happen when we do not consider our actions, when we think 'it can't be that bad' or 'it would never happen here'. There is a long way to go before we find such repugnant occurrences here, but we would be foolish to think that it cannot happen. "Lest We Forget" refers not only to the millions who died, but the events which led inexorably to those deaths.

So I make no apology for the vehemence with which I defend my opinions on Brexit. If you expect me to hold my tongue, to keep quiet for the sake of decency or politics, you are to be disappointed. I make no apology for the flood of information I'm pouring out onto the internet, for the passion with which I talk about this issue and the anger and frustration I exhibit when challenged upon it. Do not expect me to 'let it go' or simply 'make the best of it'. My opinions and my convictions are not political, they are not self-interested and they are not a product of fashion, rather they are born of a deep seated sense that we must not allow the kind of behaviour which leads to such events to be propagated.

You are welcome to call me a scaremonger, to shrug this off as mountains and molehills, but think rationally for a moment. If we do our best to fight such extremism and are found to be over acting, then what have we lost? Yet if we are negligent, what then is the cost, to us and to the whole world?

Lest we forget indeed.

Petitions, Partitions and Propositions

Well after yesterday's witheringly dull assessment of the first few days of our glorious new independence from a tyranny that never existed, today I aim to behave in a more analytical manner. This post will be largely opinion, so may be a bit short on qualifying references.

One would expect, perfectly reasonably, that if a powerful group of politicians and business leaders was proposing an enormous constitutional and political upheaval, they might have some inklings of a plan for how to deal with such an occurrence. I mean, it's basically page one of the book entitled 'Changing the social, political and economic future of one of the world's largest economies for dummies', isn't it?

The United Kingdom of Great Britain, Northern Ireland and Berwick-upon-Tweed has, arguably, been the country which has had the greatest effect, for better or for worse, on the history of the globe. Its empire stretched across all continents and its language permeates every tongue and every home. Surely then, such a stalwart of global relations wouldn't rush headlong into a period of generational uncertainty without a well thought out and carefully orchestrated roadmap, setting out how it would facilitate trade, travel and international relations?

Ah.

Well, apparently it would. Zilch, zero, bugger all and sweet FA; that's the plan.

You see, my assessment, and that of quite a few of the analysts I've read over the last few days, is that there is no plan because nobody thought this would ever happen. Great Britain voluntarily leave the largest trading bloc in the world? Don't be ridiculous! Our leaders would never allow such a preposterous state of affairs to come to pass!

Except, of course, what they did was open the issue up as a plebiscite, a vote among the common people who, like me, you and everyone else, really have absolutely no idea of how the world works. Sure, we all think we do, because we have access to media, the internet and global communications. We're all experts in this hyper connected age.

Except, of course, that we're not. Most of us have jobs, families and lives to get on with. Most of us don't study international politics, economics or human geography. It's this last factor which, it is becoming apparent if it wasn't before, which surely is to blame for the current clusterfuck.

I understand why people fear immigration; it's an inbuilt fear of the unknown which most likely has its roots in the evolutionary processes which have brought us to this stage in our biological and physiological development. Back in the days when our ancestors were swinging from tree to tree and rolling around in the dirt of the African wilderness, threats came from all sides. Other primates, tigers, hyenas and all manner of weird looking, strange sounding and funky smelling creatures were out to get us, so those ancestors who survived the harsh wilderness were those who held a healthy suspicion of anything unknown.

This suspicion carried us forward and served us well. As we began to form larger tribes and societies, unknown foreigners heralded invasion and tyranny, so our fear of them allowed us to stoke up resistance and opposition, or encouraged us to take the fight to our enemies. Our fear of the unknown is part of what brought us here today.

But that was a different world, a world where lightning was a spear from the gods, where dust storms were desert djinns and the rains were in control of our destiny. Now, we live in a world where we can talk to each other across the continents, trade with each other regardless of language, and look down upon our world to see our entire landscape, our entire history and our entire civilisation all within one pale blue dot. 

Everyone you've ever known, everyone you ever will know or haven't known. Every war, every romance, every tear and every giggle is contained in this tiny little speck, Carl Sagan's "Pale Blue Dot". Credit: NASA/JPL

Our lives now are not separate, we are not tribes any more. We are undeniably a single race.

The European Union is a dream, a grand project to realise this unity. After the catastrophes of the twentieth century, the wars, the atomic bombs and the genocide, the purpose of this bloc wasn't about trade, or free movement of people, or even politics. It was about breaking down those barriers of fear, of suspicion of the guys from the next valley along. For me, unusually it sadly seems, the other arguments are insignificant; this goal alone is sufficient for me to champion this great project with the joyous fervour that comes with progress.

Unfortunately though, this vision is not foremost in the minds of the electorate as a whole, if at all. Sadly what concerns people is fear. Fear of immigration, fear of poverty and the fear of loss of identity. Now whilst I 'tackled' these issues yesterday, or rather whether or not they would be affected by Brexit,  we must now look forward to what is to come. How will we adjust in this strange new world which, to my eyes, looks a lot like the bad old world? How will we be seen by our neighbours and friends?

Let's begin with things at home. Scotland, you bloody stars by the way, voted pretty resoundingly to remain within the EU. Regrettably for them though, the referendum result was not based on regions or constituencies, but each vote from each person counted equally. As such, despite the whole country voting to stay, they will be dragged kicking and screaming out of the Union.

Or will they? Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Britain's most beloved haggis loving nation, has indicated, rightly so in my opinion, that in light of this fundamental disagreement between the Scots and their southerly brethren, Scotland may once again vote on its independence, with polls indicating that they would indeed vote to cede from the UK. They are already holding meetings about remaining in the EU regardless of the referendum result, and are getting warm replies. Northern Ireland, too, are considering reunification with the Republic of Ireland after a similar regional 'remain' vote. Only Wales, other than England, has voted to leave.

This last point saddens me the most. I grew up in Wales and was educated in one of its fine universities. My wife and I have spent some of our best times there and the rolling green hills, tremendous mountains and beautiful valleys will forever hold the most warm and loved place in my heart. Wales is, by region, the biggest beneficiary of EU funds in mainland Britain, attracting investment in industry and infrastructure on a scale that has changed the fortunes of many of its poorest areas. Yet, inexplicably, they voted in line with England. Now regardless of the economic or political ramifications of leaving the EU, the Welsh just voted the same way as the English. Whut? Now come on, bois, this ain't right. The Welsh have denied themselves the chance to be fundamentally, viscerally angry at the English. They've set aside their favourite pastime, which will now be exclusively managed by the Scottish and Irish. This is a crisis for Wales, greater than any Six Nations loss, which is a big thing for Wales. Wales is now, by association, lumped in with the dreaded English. Ddim yn iawn.

The annual rugby competition is Wales' favourite opportunity to stick it to the bastards next door.

Credit: www.walesonline.co.uk

Briefly back to the Scottish - this morning the BBC reported that, due to ructions in the Labour party with only 40 Labour MPs supporting their leader, that the Scottish National Party (SNP) should be considered the official opposition in Westminster. We'll come back to why this is important later, but you must admit, you've got to admire their audacity.

Also at home we now have the task of acquiring a new prime minister after David Cameron, our bacon-faced incumbent, resigned on the morning of the referendum result. Whether this was a masterful move on his part or a cowardly slither out of responsibility, the fact is that someone else is going to have to handle the hand over from the EU. Whoever his successor is, they may also wish for the mandate of the British people to negotiate the British exit by way of running a general election. It seems to me that nobody, absolutely nobody really, truly wants this (except Nigel Garage, obviously). Cameron initially intonated that, in the event of a Brexit vote, he would trigger Article 50 immediately after receiving the result. He hasn't, preferring instead to pass the buck onto whatever poor sap comes after him, in true Tory style.

So, I hear you ask, what is Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty? Well, I'm good to you, so I'll go through the laborious task of copying and pasting it here:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article [source]

I'll tell you what, it's bloody short, isn't it? Incredible how such an unassuming piece of text can cause such seismic activity across the political continent.

So will this tiny little agreement, this diminutive notification ever be enacted? Cameron's certainly not doing it and his successors are doing a lot of blustering. There is talk of 'no rush to enact it', and 'taking the time to elect a new prime minister'. This is all dissembling, I've no doubt. The leaders of the EU have stated that Britain should get a move on, whilst Angela Merkel, the Iron Lady of the Union says that we can take our time.

This entire situation has become a political wrangling in which all sides are doing their best to seem like their getting their way whilst, thankfully in my opinion, the only people being excluded are the British public. So spaghetti-like and pitfall-ridden this process is already becoming, that it's hard to see how we'll ever get out of it.

The British government are saying a lot of things about retaining a position within the EEA, the free trading agreement which makes the EU seem so attractive, whilst rejecting free movement. The EU says, quite rightly, that you can't have one without the other. Boris Johnson set out the first ramblings of a plan in this column for the Eurosceptic Daily Telegraph, yet for all its sycophancy, it does seem to sound like he wants absolutely sod all to be any different.

There's another thorn in the side of the leave campaign; a petition. Now these petitions usually carry about as much weight as an anorexic fruit fly, but this one has attracted over four million signatures. That's hard to ignore, and it calls for a second referendum. Hilariously, it was actually started by a leave supporter who expected the result to go the other way, but if anything this merely adds credibility to the idea. Based on the lies and realisations that I discussed yesterday, is it really unreasonable to request a second bite at the cherry? Will DC's successor really have the balls to trigger article 50 with so much obvious opposition? How many of those signatories are disillusioned leave supporters?

Let's quickly summarise all of these points:

1. The EU Referendum threatens the unity of the United Kingdom.

2. There doesn't seem to be much appetite to actually leave within the ruling elite.

3. There is considerable support for a second referendum.

4. The EU are not letting us get away with this easily. 

5. We have a new prime minister to select.

6. We may need to have a general election, which may well decimate the Tory party. 

7. Everything we went through yesterday.

8. The pro-EU SNP are now the most powerful opposition in parliament and will undoubtedly form a determined and well-supported resistance to the Brexit plans. 

9. This is a mammoth bloody job. 

Now I'm liable to be clutching at straws because I am really, really Europhillic (if you hadn't noticed), but you must admit, getting out of the EU does not seem like an easy thing to achieve. Oh, by the way, the Labour Party is tearing itself apart. I've not got into that yet, but I'm sure I'll find the time.

 

 

The results so far...

I'll continue with my ignorant and naïve characterisation of the major players later, but for now I think it's worth mapping out what's happened with Brexit so far and where I think it's going to go next.

So on Thursday night my wife went to bed and I stayed up to watch the count. I was a little anxious, true, but I never believed that Britain would ever choose anything other than to remain in the EU. The polls had swung heavily towards remain, the financial markets and currencies looked confident, and those often reliable oracles, the bookies, had the odds stacked way in favour of staying in. Then the Gibraltar vote came in, 96% remain, 4% leave, and I was in high spirits. The anxiety that had been plaguing me in unpleasant little waves for the last few weeks was all just nerves. This was going to go the way of the Scottish independence referendum.

A couple more regions reported their counts and it looked rosy, but then came Sunderland. Oh dear. Well, perhaps this was just statistical noise. We had to expect that some areas would defy predictions, but there was no reason to suspect that the aberration would be reflected throughout the evening. Oh, but it was.

As the counts came in, the number of leave votes grew ever higher. Now and again, a London borough would tip the results back in favour of remain, but by about 3:30 a.m. we had a pretty good, if galling, idea of where things were going. Heavily depressed, I went to bed. My one hope was that the majority of London hadn't yet declared and that things may well be back on the straight and narrow by the morning. I fell into a fitful sleep where dreams of giant David Dimblebies wielding razor sharp swingometers descended on me with the vote to leave ringing in my ears, while Jeremy Vine cackled mischievously as he watched the demise of logic and reason.

Sweating, I awoke at around 6:30 and realised the dreams were just that. I turned to my phone, unlocked it and clicked straight onto the BBC News website.

Fuck.

Fuck fuckity bollocking fuck.

Now, you may resent my use of profanity here, but let me assure you this is considerably tamer than what spilled out of my mouth early on the morning of the 24th. My wife, turned over as she woke and asked what I was whining about, so I told her.

"Fuck" she said.

"Fuck fuckity bollocking fuck." or at least words to that effect.

The rest of the day was spend not-so-quietly fuming and, as my long suffering friends will attest, hurling my anger at the dispassionate wall of Facebook.

But then, things began to change.

The first piece of news was that our old friend Nigel Garage was telling us that he couldn't guarantee that there was going to be an extra £350,000,000 per week to spend on the NHS and that he thought it had been a mistake[source].

Well were we surprised? Of course we bloody weren't. The slimy little newty-faced snotgoblin had come out with precisely what we expected. He, of course, stated that he'd never mentioned that number. He had [source]. Of course, Nigel Garage wasn't part of the official leave campaign, so does it matter whether he ever made that claim? Oh, Vote Leave also made that promise. Don't believe me? Look here, oh and here, on their website where they said "If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we can not just reduce the pressure on the NHS, but can stop sending £350m to the EU every week and instead spend it on our priorities. £350m is enough to build a brand new, fully staffed hospital every week.". But have they now backtracked on the promise as well? I believe they have [source]. Oh dear.

Now I'm not the kind of person that believes that the breaking of a single promise should tarnish the entire campaign. This is politics. No campaign ever seems to go without at least one or two little (£350 million) fibs, so surely the other promises made during the campaign are all being kept. After all, a lot of people voted on the basis of statements made to them by the campaigners, as well they should.

Of course, one of the most contentious issues brought about during the debate was that of immigration. Something along the lines of 333,000 immigrants, whether refugees or economic migrants, came to the UK last year. Slightly less than half of these migrants were from the EU [source], so leaving the EU is unlikely to bring the numbers down any more than that, presumably somewhat less. But to misunderstand this isn't the fault of the British voter. Many of them are scared of the number of migrants coming to this country. So surely, when the leave campaign say that a vote for Brexit will significantly reduce the number [source -That's the same web page as the £350 million pledge, by the way] of immigrants, you'd expect, post-referendum, for them to stick by that idea. Oh dear, they've reneged on that promise as well [source].

Well, alright, sometimes fibs get out, but third time's a charm, eh? One of the other major claims by Vote Leave was the idea that we'd be able to reclaim our 'sovereignty'. Now I use inverted commas here because I think the idea of a pile of besuited wankers in Westminster making our laws is very much the same as them being made in Brussels, or wherever else, for that matter. However, I understand people's national pride is at stake, so is it possible that the leave campaign never made this promise? No, it's not. They definitely made it [source]. And are they going to stick to it? Once again, it appears not, with the pro-Brexit Express newspaper saying that we'll require a Norway style trading arrangement with the EU [source]. Now that doesn't seem too bad, does it? Except of course that, as it says in the article, those countries are required to accept free movement of people in order to secure such a deal, so we're back to immigration. But this is about sovereignty, not immigration, so are there any ramifications here? Oh yes, oh yes there are. Norway and the other countries with similar arrangements are also required to implement a number of yes, you guessed it, EU laws [source].

So it seems that the politicians on the Leave side were just bags of hot air, but that doesn't mean the ever faithful British press would have been so stupid as to publicise promises which couldn't be kept? Pah! See anything the Express or Sun wrote before the referendum. Kindly though, the tabloid press has, since the event, been helpfully informing their readers about the negative impacts of Brexit [source]. Yes, that link is to The Independent, but there's a link in there to the original article. I just thought you'd like the additional chance to read some of the Sun newspaper's readers' reactions to the 'news'.

Okay, so we've pretty well torn up any idea that the leave campaigns promises were anything other than complete heffalump testicles, but what about the remain campaign? Weren't they just ladening us with fear and scaremongering?

Well, yes, they were. The thing about scaremongering though, is that just because it's designed to instil dread, that doesn't mean it's not true.

How did the pound cope on the day after the referendum? It crashed to a 31 year low [source].

What about the stock markets? Bollocksed [source].

House builders? Dropping faster than teenager's balls [source].

How about Britain's reliable and long standing global credit rating? Err...down 2 levels by Standard & Poors, Fitch and Moody's too [source].

All kinds of other financial skullfuckery going on too. You can find that out for yourselves by looking at any reputable news source, anywhere in the world.

So after all the lies, the deceit and the economic downturn, how are the voters feeling about their new found independence? Err....not great. The Daily Mail (yes, that one) conducted a survey which led it to believe that 1.1 million leave voters now regret their decision [source].

Oh, and some good news, the Prime Minister's resigned, triggering a Tory leadership race and a possible general election [source], but don't be too excited, as that probably means he'll be replaced by Boris 'I didn't really expect anyone to actually go and vote to leave' Johnson.

So how would I sum up the aftermath of the EU Referendum? Four words:

Fuck fuckity bollocking fuck.

Tomorrow, if I haven't moved to Gibraltar, I'll tackle the future. Should be simple enough.

David Cameron

This man is, perhaps, a little more difficult to profile. Undoubtedly he doesn't have the admiration of a large segment of the electorate, and undoubtedly he represents the rich, elite political class which has been the target of such hatred and resentment over the past few years, and yet the uncomfortable truth is that, on the matter of Britain's membership of the EU, I agree with him, and so does a large proportion of the aforementioned electorate who so despise him.

I have wondered, at times over the course of the referendum campaign and since, if was perhaps simply DC's mere involvement in the remain campaign that led to its eventual defeat. Now I'm not going to make any reference to pork, as I believe that joke has worn so thin I could read the leave campaign's small print through it. However, it is important to ask ourselves why this man failed so drastically to convince voters of the EU's many benefits, when all he did was tell the truth and make well reasoned arguments. I have listened to the sweaty, red-faced penny grabber through the whole debate and in honesty, I have rarely heard a politician speak with such rationality, objectivity and sheer belief in what he is saying. That's not to say I didn't spend many hours shouting at the radio whenever he was on it, but I truly believed he had no further motive than keeping the UK in the EU, and possibly lining himself up for a decent job afterwards, you know, possibly something in the Middle East. Oil, or something to do with military technology.

Yet this belief in the man's authenticity shakes me to my very core. It's completely unreasonable, with my assessment of the world, to accept that a high ranking politician such as Cameron didn't have a shadowy ulterior motive.

But then, perhaps he did. A theory has emerged that the whole sorry affair has just been a big game between Cameron and the bumblingly believable buffoon Boris Johnson [source]. Now I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories, in fact coming from the scientific community, the moment I hear the word 'theory', I begin to get a little sceptical. Yet there is something in this, something intangible which makes me lean towards it, out of hope, perhaps, rather than any belief in its veracity. Perhaps it's my general suspicion of those in authority, or perhaps its my desperation for some glimmer of hope in this, one of the darker moments in my political life. Or, perhaps, there's just a little tiny grain of truth in it.

Either way, what's certain is that DC's successor has an awful shitstorm to deal with, whilst David and Samantha while away the rest of their days on an island somewhere, chuckling together about all the silly, poor bastards they've left behind at home.

Nigel Farage

This man is the epitome of everything I despise about this country. The frog-eyed twat has been the driving force behind the greatest political upheaval and division of British society in my lifetime and, as a result, henceforth on this blog he shall be known as Nigel Garage, after the place where we want to throw all our useless shit and hope that our families never have to look at it.

Not only is this piss-flap of an excuse for a man politically objectionable, but his personal demeanour is such a glaringly obvious indication of his underlying character that the fact that the British public seem oblivious to it casts more of an unpleasant shadow over them than it does over the haddock-faced fuckwit himself.

So unpleasant and viscerally repugnant is this man that, despite the fact that this entire sorry affair can be attributed to his poisonous influence, his fellow leave campaigners don't want to be associated with him. It's like a horribly nasty, far-right equivalent of everyone avoiding Martin Luther King Jr after his "I have a dream" speech, or Einstein being asked to wait outside at the famous 5th Solvay Conference in 1927. What is most galling about this is that, despite the weasely, bullshitting and downright vicious nature of this imbecile, he is arguably the most successful political speaker in our time. In a period where schoolgirls like Malala Yousafzai receive the Nobel Peace prize for standing up for girls' education, where individuals and organisations the world over seek to unify the human race and bring peace to billions, how is it that this complete arse-wipe manages to command the respect of so many people?

Even his school masters were concerned about the rampant fascism manifested in this man when he was a child [source], and even though such concerns have surfaced on social media and across more traditional channels, his adoring masses seem swallowed in by his vile rhetoric, and it really doesn't suggest a pleasant impression of what lies beneath.

One must consider, when attempting to understand why people follow the people they follow, that it is difficult for an orator to elicit in his or her audience an emotion or reaction which does not agree with sentiments already held, at least in some small way, by that audience. The skill that Garage has in such abundance is the ability to legitimise those feelings within people. Everybody knows what a repugnant, bile-filled pustule this man is, and that's precisely the problem; no matter how inappropriate or unpleasant the feelings of an individual are, Garage is always worse. Whilst he rails against the establishment, he is simply a part of it, and if the establishment are allowed to be xenophobic ignorami, then why shouldn't the electorate behave in similarly abhorrent ways?

The worst thing about this political shoe-scraping, this exemplar of hate who seeks to drag human political development back to a time when the guys in the adjacent valley were strange and exotic, is that he's not alone. Across our great continent and over the wide seas, these beacons of fear and prejudice are erupting, vile white-heads on the greasy teenage skin of the human race. Their voices are shouting louder and louder whilst the voices of reason, tolerance and progress are being swamped beneath the clamour.

Oh bugger

So Britain has voted to leave the European Union. I can't pretend I'm happy about it and I'm not going to try. What I am going to do is to keep a blog of the developments.

I can't promise it's going to be unbiased - it's not. I can, however, do my utmost to qualify statements with facts and voice the concerns of the opposing side. To say that these concerns won't be met with contempt, derision and firm rebuttal would be disingenuous, but they will be voiced.

I'm going to start by attempting to draw a picture of some of the major players, before beginning a summary of the situation so far.