So what can be our hope now, us 'remainers'?
Now that things are 'calming down', by which I mean heading recklessly for a very definite oblivion, just in a marginally straighter line, it's time for British supporters of the EU to begin to think of some coherent plan for derailing this ridiculous freight train.
Now there isn't much hope in the Tory party, if there ever was. Either Theresa May of Michael 'robot-in-a-human-suit' Gove [it's slipping] looks set to become our next prime minister. The chance of a subsequent general election isn't looking to rosy, so we're probably looking at an unelected leader negotiating our future position in Europe. Let's have a look at each of these candidates for a moment and see what kind of raging zombie apocalypse we're going to get.
Theresa May came down on the remain side during the run-up to the referendum, but she didn't exactly campaign and has expressed an interest in restricting the free movement of people [source], suggesting that she's not a die-hard, 100% EU supporter. Now she is a politician, so this may be a ruse. She may be trying her best to lure in the Eurosceptics in order to get hold of the premiership, but she's also pretty hard nosed.
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| Theresa May attempting to use telekinesis to detonate the head of a small child. |
My personal opinion of May is that she will have been speaking frankly and is a bit of a hard-arse. If she says she's going to take us out of the EU, she will do, but in her favour I do expect that she'd have a good chance of brokering a more favourable deal than anyone else. Having said that, I'd rather not leave at all, and based on what I've said so far on this blog I'm not actually that interested in 'a good deal for Britain' when it comes to leaving. I'd rather see the EU manage to hold its own and convince voters in other member states that __exit isn't the way forward. That way, in a decade or two, Britain might go snivelling back, adopt the Euro and Schengen and the world can get on with improving itself.
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| Gove: Does not compute. Runtime error. |
I wouldn't trust Michael Gove as far as I could throw him. By all accounts he's cunning, wily and a genuine Eurosceptic. I fear for the arrogance of this man and the blind faith he seems to have in his country. I wouldn't put it past him to blithely stick up two fingers to the EU and get us out with no negotiation whatsoever. Now this does tie back into my in-a-decade-Euro-Schengen point above, but it'd be so bloody painful to watch. I'll come back to Imperial Gove Unit BX457 in a moment.
But what of the other parties? Is there any point looking for hope here? The Labour Party is in disarray, the Lib Dems are comparable to a bunch of schoolkids hanging around the bus stop smoking fags (probably e-cigarettes actually) and UKIP can just go fuck themselves. The SNP and the whole Scotland, Ireland, Gibraltar issue is going to have to wait for another day, but frankly I can't see it helping us just yet. So what of this possible general election and second referendum? Well Theresa May has ruled out both [source] so, heaven forbid, we're back with Gove. I think, due to Mrs May's hard line on this issue, he'll have to at least plump for an election, mainly as a way of gaining a public endorsement for his future plans.
So this, really, will be our only hope, if any of this comes to pass, but are there enough people pissed off with the Tories to get anyone more Europhilic into office?
Lets have a look at some possibilities:
CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY
Ah, bollocks. Bad in pretty much every way, I think. Whoever ends up leading this party is not going to be the person I want dealing with this mess.
LABOUR MAJORITY
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| I call this image 'Sexy Corbyn wants to date you'. |
Probably still going to be Corbyn in charge, which gives me a little hesitation. I like Corbyn, I think he's principled and will stand by his word. However, he's also desperate to reclaim 'the disillusioned Labour voters' who voted for Brexit, so I have no doubt it's out the door we shall be going, albeit probably in a capacity that results in the UK and Europe having much the same relationship as they do now, just under some other name. As for anyone else leading Labour, it's a bit too early to tell what such a leader would be like, seeing as I have no idea who that might be.
LIBERAL DEMOCRAT MAJORITY
No, I just said it for a laugh, but on the extremely unlikely off-chance that it happened, Timmy Farron says we'll be staying in, so on this note he gets my vote. He can charge students as much as he bloody likes and frankly make them work back down the mines if he can fix this balls-up.
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| Little Timothy Farron auditioning for the school choir. Unfortunately he was unsuccessful as the judges deemed him 'not raunchy enough' |
UKIP MAJORITY
Fuck off, I'm moving to Outer Mongolia or going on a shotgun rampage (only joking - it'll be a fully automatic)*.
TORY/UKIP COALITION
See the previous post
TORY/LIB-DEM COALITION
This, to my mind, would be the most favourable scenario still involving a Brexit. It wouldn't be ideal as we'd still be leaving, but I think free movement of people, goods and services would have its highest chances in such an arrangement. I think we'd very much be able to continue life as normal and even, albeit tentatively, still call ourselves Europeans.
LABOUR/LIB-DEM COALITION
I think we'd just about avoid a Brexit this way round, but I think we'd be in for a decade of negotiations that would see serious financial ramifications. However, these might be partially mitigated, at least at home, by a reduction in austerity.
There is another option, though it's pretty much an outside chance, but it is a tantalisingly interesting prospect:
LIB-DEM/S.N.P./Maybe some others COALITION
We can basically call ourselves 'Jean-Pierre' and wear berets for the rest of eternity. This outlandish and hugely unlikely idea still gets the Lib Dems my vote.
Of course, all of this is moot if we don't get a general election. As for a second referendum, it wouldn't be the same question. I can imagine it would be along the lines of a vote to choose between the negotiated exit package or the status quo. Despite Theresa May's ruling out of EURef#2, I actually think it's going to be a pretty tough job to get a Brexit either without offering the public the choice or by somehow getting massive public support some other way.
The other hope, which is now dwindling, is that whichever candidate ends up leading the Conservatives and becoming the unelected, therefore constitutionally unsupported prime minister, will either not have the balls or will find themselves legally unable to go through with it.
All of the above is, of course, wild conjecture of the highest order and I don't expect anyone for a moment to agree with it. Yet it does put something into perspective: the future of Britain in the EU is by no means bought and sold, and there is a colossal amount of skulduggery to come.
Peace out, Europhiles.
*If MI5 or anyone is listening, don't get excited this is just hyperbole. Yes I have got my tin-foil hat on.
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